After the huge surge in energy prices that accompanied the start of the war in Ukraine, the high energy price inflation that caused such alarm in the UK and elsewhere has eased. Alternative supplies have become more established and milder weather has reduced demand.
However, notwithstanding these factors and the help the government has given to consumers, the fact is that many a boiler will still need replacing. And the best time for boiler installation is now, before the colder weather kicks in.
The first factor that is starting to drive up wholesale prices – which will subsequently feed into what consumers pay – is the weather.
Prices are measured per therm and these hit 123p on Tuesday October 10th, the highest it had been since April. It has subsequently risen to 135p. This has reflected the fact that the unusually warm spell of early autumn had kept prices down, but temperatures are now expected to return to something near seasonal norms.
How far they do may be open to question, given the unusually mild winter conditions seen in the southern hemisphere winter earlier this year, but in an erratic climate, nobody can be quite sure about what will happen next.
Whatever does occur, people will still use more energy, not least because it will still be cooler than in summer and also because electricity prices are tied to gas one certainty is that people will turn their lights on more as the days get shorter.
A second important factor is the global supply situation. This is still a matter of geopolitical uncertainty, both because of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and also the situation in Israel and Gaza.
In the latter case, the closing of the Tamar gas field – which supplies not only Israel but also Egypt and Jordan – could be temporary if the military situation is short-lived, but a protracted conflict or even a wider escalation across the region could have a much bigger impact.
Another concern is possible action by Russian-backed operatives to sabotage gas supplies among Ukraine’s European allies. The closure of a connector between Finland and Estonia – the former having just joined NATO – has increased fears that the Kremlin will continue to use energy as leverage to curb support for Ukraine.
Speaking to US broadcaster CNN, head of gas analytics at ICIS, Tomas Marzec-Manser said: “This has obviously created a lot of nervousness and heightened the geopolitical risk within the European gas market.”
Even in peaceful parts of the world, there is some uncertainty over supply, with industrial action at liquid national gas plants in Australia threatening to reduce production there and place a further squeeze on that source.
With all this uncertainty, the one thing you can be sure of is the efficiency of your gas boiler. That means if the one you have isn’t working very well, replacing it will ensure you can make the very most of the facility you have. The world may be a topsy-turvy place, but you can have the certainty of optimum performance under your own roof.